America On-Line (AOL) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)

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To: CookiePuss who wrote (25789)	7/15/1999 6:16:00 PM
From: Dr. Zax	Read Replies (4) of 41369

Cookie. I am coming to the conclusion that too many people now know about pre-earnings runs and their subsequent retreats (case in point YHOO, EBAY, GNET... almost any of them. Since more people know about this, the game is shifting from an accumulate just before and dump just after earnings, to a game of chicken as to who will dump first before earnings. Currently we are at a point in the cycle where we will be flat until earnings, then move. In the near future we will shift to a sell into earnings and buy after. Then, you guessed it, we shift back to a buy rumor, sell news pattern. Of course no one knows for sure... you can never time the market. Holding and being long is the safest and most profitable method. But I do not see a large pre-earnings run-up this quarter. This is good news if you are long because you won't have the urge to sell as it flies up, or the urge to sell as it crashes afterward. Less volatile stocks (like AOL is becoming) are bad news for traders. So I hold, we will see flat until earnings, then movement. JMHO - and I won't eat my hat if I am wrong.... because I will be happy if it goes up. Dr.Zax

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