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Technology Stocks : Compaq
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To: Christopher who wrote (65196)7/15/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: Kenya AA  Read Replies (3) of 97611
 
Hi Christopher. I'm fine. And you? I haven't posted that much here because CPQ has been basing since that last gap down in April so there hasn't been much to say. I've been hanging out at the Playhouse and trading other stuff. BTW, I'm familiar with the term "gap" - I've read Evans and Magee, et. al. <ggg>

FWIW, I made the case that the base range would be from 22 to 25 because 25 was the high on the day of the tumble. I'm not sure where you are getting a low of 22.50 on 6/17 from - the low for that day was 20 and the closing low during this base was 21-3/16 a few days before that, but no matter. Maybe there's not any difference, but I see that move out of the base to 27 as a failed break out rather than an encounter with any kind of resistance. The catalyst for that move was the news about the new distribution model, but the base formation was too short and the volume just wasn't good enough to sustain the move so the stock rolled over. I posted this just a week before that move:

Message 9251741

Well he did, but the rabbit died <ggg> and in a couple of weeks we hit 20. I have much more confidence in this breakout because we have a beautiful base and the volume was there. I do think it'll bump up against 30 a few times before it pushes through convincingly. Hopefully earnings and/or a new CEO will provided the impetus.

****OT**** Do you subscribed to the theory that gap ups are destined to fill a high percentage of the time?? I'm particularly interested in VNWK. I'd appreciate your take if you are so inclined.

K
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