I saw your comments on ONEM and I thought that you might be interested
in this valuation analysis of some of the larger U.S. ISPs. The
analysis is based, with the exception of ELNK which reported its
second quarter results yesterday, on the first quarter numbers. I
think it is safe to assume that the valuations for the other ISPs can
each be reduced by at least 10% to reflect their second quarter
results. ONEM has consistently trailed the others in terms of its
valuation. I think that there are a number of reasons for this. Roll
ups are never popular and the ONEM deal was a complicated. Secondly,
since ONEM completed its IPO on March 30, 1999, the first quarter
Form 10-Q consisted of pro forma results. Everyone is waiting for a
proof of concept. ONEM has had a good run over the last several weeks
and I think that it is going to pull back from its current level. I
generally update this schedule each weekend and post it on the ONEM thread.
Internal
Qtr to Qtr Percentage
Valuation per Market cap/ Subscriber Decline
Subscriber Sales Growth From High
BIZZ 2,824 8.39 11.31% 48.95%
ELNK(3) 1,435 6.06 15.58% 39.50%
FLAS 1,930 12.86 10.49% 48.54%
GEEK 1,788 8.37 14.58% 66.39%
MSPG 2,495 13.77 9.81% 64.66%
ONEM (1) 1,579 8.02 11.77% 37.17%
PRGY (2) 2,263 11.89 16.04% 46.05%
(1) Adjusted for the acquisition of "The Grid."
(2) Excludes Prodigy Classic subscribers. Adjusted for acquisition of
150,000 Cable & Wireless subscribers (transaction expected to
close in fourth quarter)
(3) Quarter ending June 30, 1999
The above analysis is based on a review of the most recent SEC filings
and the July 15, 1999 closing prices. |
