I thought earlier that the sector was due for a pullback before going higher. After looking at the charts, I'm not so sure.
I'm at the point where I hesitate to take profits for fear of missing a big move. I suppose if enough people feel the same way, the sector will rally (although if this thread is any indication, most people seem to be in a selling mode -- nothing wrong, of course, with taking a profit).
From a bullish perspective, many OS stocks are coming off a 2 month period of consolidation. There is some pretty solid support for the OSX with the 50 day ema at 75 1/2 and the 200 day ema at 70 1/8. Some of the laggards have recently gotten very interesting -- FLC, PDE, PGO, RIG. (When laggards get hot, is it the sign of the end of a rally, or the beginning of the next leg up?) And, fundamentally, we've seen the rig count rising, new drilling and service contract announcements almost daily, and early news that E&P's are planning to increase their exploration budgets. Rising oil takes us only so far. It's these indications of new OS business which will take the sector the rest of the way.
One further observation, it's starting to look to me as though even "the yard of choice" is finding a technical base in the 12's. I still don't like the fundamentals (as compared to most of the rest of the sector), but I'm looking for some sort of a bounce soon.
Now that I've talked myself into holding, rest assured we will see OSX 60's by next week. <g> |
