Hi Tony,
I was looking on my stock screen, and I see an income of $1.80/share
and a PE of 1.11 for CHRB, if this is accurate then your assumption
of $1.45/share for next year wouldn't do much for the stock price,
or would it?
Also, I was in a rubber producing state of Southen India, last month,
and talked to many rubber estate owners,and they tell me the price
per Kg of rubber has fallen from Rs.60 ($2.00/kg) to about Rs.35.00
($1.00) per Kg, a 50% reduction in the last year or so. Mind you this
price is not for raw rubber latex,it is for semi processed rubber,ie
the latex is turned into solid rubber sheets and dried,before they
sell it in the open market.They also tell me rubber production in
Malaysia,Indonesia and China has been on the rise and hence the lower
price.The Indian rubber producer can survive even at these prices as
agricultural income is completely tax free in India, and they do get
other subsides for fertilizer etc.
This is not good for CHRB, I don't think! The only saving grace
probably would be a substantial rise in natural rubber consumption,and with expanding economy in China and other developing contries,this
could happen, or at least let us hope so. |
