Cohu, Inc. (COHU) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Cohu, Inc. (COHU)

COHU 22.11

-1.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: KLINVESTOR who wrote (1321)	7/16/1999 1:32:00 AM
From: KLINVESTOR	Read Replies (1) of 7825

The following is my 3rd quarter estimate. Sorry if sounds familiar but I have simply taken the 2nd quarter estimate and changed the numbers where appropriate. ====================================== Great Quarterly Numbers! The EPS was .48 cents vs analyst estimates of 26 cents. Very good news although not totally unexpected given the backlog of the prior quarter. Just the typical lag factor of Cohu analysts. The total year earnings estimates before this announcement were $1.17 . Cohu exceeded the quarterly estimate by 22 cents for the second quarter it could be extrapolated that 1999 earnings in the $2.18 range if they beat the current quarterly estimates by 22 cents per quarter. The big question will be whether bookings continue to increase during the remainder of the year. The BTB for the quarter was 1.43 with total bookings of $62.3 million versus sales of $43.5million. This was probably the best news of all as there is clearly a very significant increase in bookings being recorded and the 3rd quarter is looking relatively strong compared to the disaster we saw in late 1998. Generally Cohu sales for a quarter are approximately the previous quarter-end backlog. Sales were up by $14 million from the previous quarter and the EPS was up 34 cents on a normalized basis. Since the backlog is up $18 million if sales for next quarter jump in that range we could be looking at roughly $61 million of sales in the 3rd quarter. Since the earnings jumped by 34 cents with a $14 million sales increase if we have a roughly $18 million increase in sales during the 2nd quarter we might be looking at an increase in earnings during the 3rd quarter of in excess of the 34 cents we had in the 2nd quarter over lst qtr jump. Thus we might be looking at 82 cents (48 cents 2nd quarter plus increase of 34 cents) of EPS during the 3rd quarter. I think the analysts will show something like 60 cents for the 3rd quarter when they revise their numbers. Therefore, expect a blow out of the 3rd quarter estimates. My total year estimate would be as follows: lst quarter 14 cents, 2nd quarter 48 cents, 3rd quarter 82 cents, and 4th quarter $1.00 for a total year of $2.44. Does all of that sound to easy? Now if we can just catch up with TER?s share price. Hopefully they will blow out their estimates also as I would not mind if TER crossed a $100 a share soon as long as COHU was there at the finish line with them!

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