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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (41812)	7/16/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Bill, This is part of today's INDEX UPDATE dealing with the price of CRUDE. It helps support your belief of a strong pullback. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Further out, I am starting to get concerned. A big concern right now is the price of CRUDE. Yesterday I was listening to an interview on CNBC where an analyst from Morgan Stanley was stating that the recent economic report(s) misrepresented the price of gas since the report showed that there was a DECLINE in the price of gas. It was explained that due to the deadline of the recent reports it actually caught the price of GAS as it was declining. From the beginning of MAY to early JUNE the price of crude dropped significantly from 18.50 to 16.50 which I believe was the timing of the recent reports. From early JUNE to the end of JUNE the price of crude ran up from 16.50 to about 19.50, and such should should up in next months PPI/CPI/other reports. I also checked the price of unleaded gas futures for the same time period - gas dropped from .56 to .48, then ran up from .48 to .61. Keep in mind that the upswing in JUNE for both CRUDE & UNLEADED GAS is about 50% larger than the decline in MAY. I will leave it to others more qualified to determine the effects of the rise in CRUDE/GAS in the next reports. Subjectively, not much is really being said about the rise in CRUDE/GAS, especially since the recent reports indicated the decline in price. Next month's reports will be announcing the rise in price for CRUDE/GAS and the market may be paying more attention. It will also be more negative by the time the next reports if the price of CRUDE/GAS has not pullback some, and even worse if it continues up. In checking the price of both CRUDE and GAS, both are still in a clear uptrend with no technical signs of forming a top yet. I have also noticed from the charts that the price of GAS is just starting to move up relatively faster than the price of CRUDE. This should be good news for all of those who make STONG comments that there are ABSOLUTELY NO SIGNS OF INFLATION (just kidding). As mentioned previously, the charts are projecting a possible upside potential of about $25 for CRUDE. Please keep in mind that the price of CRUDE near last years selloff was in the $13-16 range, and eventually the price got to the lows around $10. CRUDE is around $20.50 now, and I mention again, that there is still no technical signs of a topping pattern yet. <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< seeya

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