The Internet's effect on civilization - a new world.
I have been in the computer business for 25 years. From building a prototype PC in the 70's (the Intel 8080) to mainframe systems and onto the desktop computer and the birth of the Internet. As the Chinese proverb states: "May you live in an interesting time", we happen to be lucky enough to be living in what is, in my opinion, the most significant event in the modern history of civilization. An event that changes the world as drastically as did the discovery of electricity and the invention of the Gootenburg press. That's a strong statement. Here is my rationalization and analysis of the Internet's future and why I believe that we are still in its infancy
First a little background about myself. In 1983 I co-founded a company called MARCIVE in San Antonio, Texas. Myself and 3 others created a system for automating libraries. In essence, we created catalog cards. Before MARCIVE was conceived librarians typed catalog cards one at a time. We purchased the database from the Library of Congress and developed a system so that a library could send us a list of LC or ISBN numbers from which we created the cards and shipped them to the library. To make a long story short, when I sold my portion of the company in 1993 we had over 7,500 customers ranging from the CIA, to Mary Kay Cosmetics, to MIT . The system continued to evolve to the point that the only human intervention for an order is the printing and mailing of the invoice. The orders enter the system through the Internet and MARCIVE returns a file via Internet to the customer. If you've been in a library in the past few years you've noticed the absence of a card catalog file now replaced by a PC that allows you to search in hundreds of different ways. The Internet changed everything for this company. A simple and typical example of the Internet's effect.
During this same time period, beginning in 1983, I have been an active trader in the stock market. I am up 166% since January 1st for this year to date. Of course everyone is a genius in a Bull market. I have done this by spending several hours each day doing research on Internet related stocks and by following a strict discipline of buying and selling. That's a different topic that I will gladly share with anyone interested. It's interesting that the Internet provides me with information that before its inception was unavailable to even major brokerage firms.
This past Christmas, we did all of our shopping via the Internet. No malls, no parking hassles, no sales tax. Gifts delivered to relatives all over the country. Analysts predict that E-Commerce will quadruple in the next year and exponentially continue for at least 3 more years. I concur except I believe that that is a conservative estimate. We are witness to, and if researched correctly, profiting from this amazing change in modern civilization. Most people still don't get it. Many experts are of the opinion that the Internet bubble is about to burst. Hogwash. This is the beginning not the peak. The Internet is evolving. Into what, no one knows. It will probably always be in the evolving state as new ideas and applications surface that today are unimagined.
Of course this is only my opinion. But it is an educated opinion in that I have lived in an interesting time for investing and for technology. The change of how the world functions. How lucky can one be? |
