Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 166.05

+0.6%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: LindyBill who wrote (35236)	7/16/1999 10:57:00 AM
From: JohnG	Read Replies (2) of 152472

LindyBill--That projected 70% total mkt growth in CDMA phones in FYE 9/00 over FYE 9/99--from 38 MM this year to 65MM phones next year works out to 14.2% per quarter. Q can't get all of this unless NOK, MOT and others really screw up on ASICS and phones. For example, if they gave up and became Q ASIC customers, they would get a significant fraction of the MKT for phones. Based on this, I don't see Q growing at more than 30 to 45% in unit sales next year. Margins are something else as are high end PDQ phones. Volume production and tight ASIC supply could push margins up. Then there are the GSTRF and TRI-mode phones. In short, the crystal ball is cloudy, but probabilities are for $200 by December--and if they get a few breaks such as the Sprint order--sky is the limit. As for earnings this quarter, apply 14.2% to $0.60/share and you get $0.68/share. But could be as high as $0.78 with all the changes improvements, etc All the No's are necessarily very rough--and in the end, just my opinion. JohnG

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