Rashid, Bruce, and JKNF ( John I believe),
I am not trying to be arguementative, most people who do T/A enjoy hearing other technician's points of view. This seems to be the case here, and I hope my perception is correct. Rashid makes a good point in that symm triangles should resolve themselves to the continuation of the trend before reaching the 3/4 point. He also makes a good point about ascending triangles making better bets for trades than symm triangles. Look back at the chart of IPM though, and note there appeared to be an ascending triangle Nov 95. There was no resolution, and the stock went into a trading range for 3 months. At the end of Feb 96 there was another ascending triangle, and the same thing happened. In Sept of 96 there was a symm triangle, and it went down from there. In Feb of this year there was an asending triangle that broke out to the upside. So we have alot of examples of success and failures. For one thing, according to John Murphy, a triangle cannot be drawn until 4 points have been set. The first point is when the stock reaches a high, and begins to retrace. In that case, the curent triangle could not even be drawn until Friday's close. The vol is behaving pretty well for an arguement that it will break to the upside, but I just wouldn't make any bets on it at this point in time. Many of the previous triangle examples I gave were not set up in strong trends, so they do not have as much weight as this one. I hope Bruce is correct, and it breaks out to the upside here. I am long, and want it to go up<g>. If it does make a strong break out to the upside, I would expect it to carry over $20 in the subsequent move. Bruce also mentions stepping back, and looking where it will be in a longer time period. I agree, and feel it will be quite different than today's price. I am hoping that it will be up many multiples of where it is today.
Aloha,
Kevin |
