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Technology Stocks : Juniper Networks - JNPR

JNPR 39.95

0.0%

Jul 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: Wizard who wrote (314)	7/16/1999 3:52:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) of 3350

Wizzard, Don't get me wrong.. I think ASND was a good company, but Mory had the right idea when he sold to LU. ASND got in trouble when CSCO took them on in the RAS space...they turned to ATM and CSCC bailed them out. CSCO let them off the hook by not doing a better job of leveraging the STRM acquisition. About 18 months ago CSCO refocused on the carrier space and ASND knew their days were numbered and so, Mory was sensible and realize that LU was as good as it was going to get. I don't think ASND would have lasted more than 3-4 years of Cisco taking it to them in the carrier space. Of course we're all just guessing because the battle never really happened. ASND bailed out before Cisco got their legs. I suspect CSCO is about 12 months away from being recognized as a major supplier (on the same tier as NT and LU) in the carrier market. They're just begining to get their legs now. Of course this by itself does not guarantee success however CSCO has shown that they do a good job of reacting to the market. JNPR however has an excellent sales staff and in fact has a number of ex-CSCO and Stratcom folks...some of the best. So CSCO will probably be dealing from weakness there. That by itself will make the mix even more interesting. To net it out. Too many people have said what you're saying "Cisco has no position with the carriers". Well, Cisco is getting one very quickly. I think they did something like 25% of their revenues with the SP's in 99. (educated guess). Time will tell..... however to bring us back to the point. Will $20M in revenues be enough to justify a $7B valuation? I think JNPR has 12-18 months (at best) to prove themselves and stake their claim. If they do only $20M this quarter they will need huge HUGE revenue growth qtr/qtr to get to a strong enough position to hold their ground and with it their valuation. Im my opinion JNPR needs to have upwards of $50M-$75M to justify these lofty prices. Look at the valuations/revenues of Extreme, Foundry, and the other terra start-ups. OG

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