Hi BB; It's a gamble , when anyone calls a top there is a
degree of luck , & they are harder to call than bottoms.
We hear the old "don't catch a falling knife" but trying to
short a top is every bit as hard then some.
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This week coming up will have some hoops the market needs to
jump, it's to be the biggest IPO week this year, 22 of them
that's money that won't show in the index. The bond market
is nervous too and a lot of new bond issues are coming to
market.
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What's odd is the investment bankers , the underwriters
and the ones you would think would be cleaning up in this
market have for the most part gone no where, over half of
them are still below their highs of over a year ago.
Goldman is trading below it's IPO , 50 % of the IPOs in the
last three months are below the close of their 1st days
trading price. The internet was leading the market, but
take today all the major nuts were down. Msft carried the
NDX higher with it's 5%+ surge however it's carries the
most weight in the NDX too. I watch what I call the 5 kings
in the NDX , MSFT, INTC, CSCO , WCOM, & DELL, along
with the sentiment stocks Yhoo, AMZN , CMGI, & ATHM,
well only MSFT & WCOM were up today and MSFT carried the
index, could her surge have been the news of the tracking stock
or the fact she didn't get hammered by the Connecticut court,
that's what the news pudits say. Me I think it was option
related or news of good earnings has leaked out, well if it
was the earnings leak or any of the others , then it's
priced in, and we could see some selling going into actual
earnings , been some of that lately with other stocks too.
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What does impress me on the bullish side is GE also making a new
high, but then she did that last July too, and the dollar
slipped today, shades of last July also.
What I didn't see yet is the market makers taking up large short
positions, maybe they do that Monday ?
Jim
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