XILLIX FDA APPROVED Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : XILLIX FDA APPROVED

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To: hsg who wrote (435)	7/17/1999 2:27:00 AM
From: Edward W. Richmond	Read Replies (2) of 572

hsg, I prepared a long post and promptly had my computer freeze. Lost it all. I'll try to recap as I am too tired to do the major again. I spoke to IR and had the projected decrease in revenue confirmed. The explanation is that the demand for Life-Lung1 is drying up in anticipation of the next generation product. It does make sense that there will be a gap during the transition period. However, the question of the size of sales of the next generation unit is still an issue. It would appear that the GI is the device that has considerably larger market potential, particularly in Japan. However, it is a very long way from market. There appears to be enough cash and cash equivalents ($5.8M) to cover another year of operation. There is little doubt that GI will NOT be to market in a year. Conclusion, more financing of some sort. Dilution? Absolutely, in my opinion. I face a dilemma. I can sell now and get killed, especially in our RRSPs. Wait to sell until the day or two before the AGM in hopes that the pattern will repeat itself. Wait for what I expect will be close to two years before we get back to our initial purchase price. It's like the choice of being shot or stabbed. Neither is exactly desirable. The technology may well have a considerable market down the road. However, what will the dilution be and will Olympus come through as a successful marketer of the products? Lots to consider. For now I'm ducking and holding. $0.80 or lower is very possible, in my opinion. Regards, Ed P.S. If I still hold shares, I will very likely attend the next AGM.

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