TB:" DownSide "
TB>Got three bear funds on the radar: USPIX, POTSX and BEARX. These are compliments of Captain Jim. USPIX looks the most aggressive of the three. I'm just waiting to see how the market reacts to the MRK and IBM earnings before I put this new line in the water. Since this will be a new adventure for me, I may use a version of your 1x4 strategy...
MG>wow - well you wanna do it, then...
profunds.com
...these be the mother of all 2:1 leveraged SPX.X and NDX.X long and short funds, Dude. You buy the "Money Market" ProFund, that puts your dinero "in the family". Then you can hop into long and short funds (leveraged funds, mind) and back to MoneyMarket, no commissions.
JH>Recently been having dreams of scratching my back on tall pine trees and fishing for salmon with my bare hands...
ok, right now most of us are up 30~45% or more YTD on our CORE portfolios, and yeah, it is difficult to imagine an annualized 60~90% gain outta un-leveraged TechSpaetzles and BigBoy bellwethers (which is what most of us are holding, right? )
The VIX.X - Volatility Index is at a ridiculously low level right now; we'll want to look for anything that looks like a hammer or morning star reversal there.
With the exception of the NDX/TXX/MSH.X indices, and perhaps OIX.X, most of the other sectors: BKX/XBD, RLX, DRG.X don't look so hot on their weekly charts. Techs can turn around on a dime, and oil (and perhaps chemicals) will follow CL99_ but, it is possible that the other sectors simply fail to bust-up past their existing highs and go mo.
What feels weakest to me are the banks and brokers, TB. Even with a pop next week on heavily-weighted C + CMB earnings, what would carry them past BKX.X ~935 ? (I dunno) For that matter, what would blow them on down again - simply, "over-valuation" ?
OTOH, there could be another one of those weird "sector rotations" like we had awhile back, where the only thing that was going up was all those stocks we don't own {grin}
*** What would really be wicked is if this time, there was a "rotation" from the OEX.X to the MID.X and RUT.X (also "stocks we probably don't own") - that's a possible scenario: our growth rate mo stops and yet "there's nothing wrong with the economy".
The kapital has to go some where if it does not continue to flow into our winners. Sure, lots of it could just get destroyed in DOT.X But not all the money's dumb, some of it is smart-money that'll move into what? bondz or income-producers? maybe over to other countries' markets? maybe into small-fish with better perceived value?
If there is a turnaround in our NDX+OEX stox, it could just be a lack of mo for awhile... that's normal... but it's dangerous because, as they drift around, any kind of unforseen event could blow them down past an acceptable "trading range" level of comfort, cutting our nice YTD gains in half. Right now, most of us are making 5x to 10x plus the returns on TYX.X with stocks and that's fantastic !
If we don't tank this month, we're in for one hell of a profitable UpTrend... that's always the dilemma, n'est-ce pas, of approaching old tops or, driving upwards into un-charted territory.
Well Dudes, you got my nose outta the ticks & tocks, and back out to the weekly charts (^_^)
-Steve |
