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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 97.80

+0.9%

Nov 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: Rarebird who wrote (37251)	7/17/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) of 116764

Rarebird Yardeni has a good record but has been disastrously wrong in 1999. If he really believes the totally manipulated gold price is telling us anything about inflation or bond yields he is even more off track than I thought. I much prefer Morgan Stanley's Steve Roach who has been right on the money this year. Sees bond yields pausing around 6% for a few months then headed for 7% by early next year as the global recovery continues and inflation pressures build. Yardeni apparently knows nothing about the oil market either. All it took was a modest OPEC cutback to quickly erase the glut and send prices back to $20. The big upmove in oil prices probably is near an end because OPEC will hike output if prices climb much further. But anyone expecting a big drop in oil prices from here will have a LONG wait. Just as OPEC will hike output to keep prices from going up much further, so they will cut output if necessary to prevent a sharp price drop. Yardeni is an ideologically committed deflationist. This was all well and food when Asia was tanking. But in a period of global healing, those who tailor their portfolios according to deflationist axioms will suffer huge losses.

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