Mike, you ask a fascinating question with respect to the "right" entry point for a company like Qualcomm, one that is trying to carve out a new chunk of techno-turf against fierce opposition.
In retrospect, I guess you're saying that the perfect time was after the Ericsson capitulation: the risk had been minimized, and the future was wide open.
For those of us who have (really!) owned the Q for quite a bit longer than that, it inspires some hand wringing. Yeah, our cost basis is very, very (Irwin*) low. But we took one helluva risk. "Your" basis is higher, but your risk was lower so that on a 'risk adjusted' basis it is likely that the Net Present Value of your expected investment return was/is higher than "ours". [I think when the MBA-speak goes away, that means: you heap smarter fellers] To which I say, bummer, dude.
This has been bugging me cause I'm sitting on a truckload full of Loral and Globalstar who are trying to pull off basically the same trick. A few political investigations of treason on the part of the company and its CEO, one spectacular launch failure that fried 12 birds at maybe $100MM/copy, and now the bankruptcy of its largest competitor casting a pall over the entire concept, does cause one to wonder if the early investor comes out with anything other than bragging rights and battle scars.
Hmmmm, does this mean the Q has become an annuity and I can just tuck it away my US Steel? Kind regards, Mike Doyle |
