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Technology Stocks : OMPT!!!
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To: Eric L who wrote (511)7/17/1999 1:01:00 PM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (1) of 531
 
Hi!

I've heard that SIM is definitely in for GSM-multimode phones, whether the bundling is done with TDMA or TDMA and AMPS.

There's a lot of talk about GSM/CDMA phones among operators. Manufacturers are a different story. The bundling can't be done cheaply or easily. All the 1999 worldphone momentum has been in the GSM-900/1900 market - next winter should bring first TDMA/GSM models.
The future GSM/CDMA models will face big price/weight/feature disadvantages: we'll see second- or third-generation GSM-900/1900 models from Ericsson and Motorola before the first generation GSM/CDMA models ship. Nokia is trying to catch the exact moment when the GSM worldphone sales take off for their first product launch - let's hope they don't cut it too close.

I don't think AMPS is really necessary, even though Ericsson is apparently choosing to bundle that into their new "kitchen-sink, too" model. You lose all the call security and a lot of stand-by time with these digital/AMPS hybrids - and you gain weight. Digital One Rate plan may be a good program for AT&T, who are after people who want extensive nationwide roaming in USA. But for consumers who aren't into rural America, digital multi-mode phones offer global urban coverage. That market should be big enough. Adding AMPS would destroy the sheer shock value of a 3.5-ounce phone offering global roaming and a week of stand-by time.

And about those GSM-CDMA bybrids - it's very tricky to get a decent stand-by time out of a CDMA phone. This summer's new CDMA phones in USA still offer less than 100 hour stand-by times with standard batteries - while GSM broke the 200-hour barrier in February 1998. The miniaturization technology of CDMA phones isn't that hot, either - Motorola's leading GSM model is about half the size of their leading CDMA phone. The R&D expenditures in GSM manufacturing are way ahead of other digital standards - it's highly unlikely the technology gap will close any time soon.

Apart from technological maturity - most of Ericsson's and Nokia's network sales come from GSM infrastructure sales. They have a lot to gain from using the handset development to guide global roaming crowd into GSM networks. Motorola has chosen to follow - as their new GSM-900/1800/1900 phone shows.

Tero

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