Sorry Rich, your Daddy Warbucks theory has several holes in it. On the one hand, you say Daddy Warbucks wants to acquire and hold a larger position at the lowest possible price. Therefore, he is not buying in the open market which would drive the price up. But if Warbucks wanted a larger position, why not invest more money than $3 million, which is 1 month of operating costs, less than 1/2 of their working capital defecit, and certainly is not enough to finance a major purchase order?
Well according to another of your theories, Lev did not want to sell more than $3 million because a purchase order is imminent and he wants to sell shares at much higher prices. But if that's the case, Warbucks would have to pay much higher prices anyway. And if he was so anxious to acquire a large stake, he would go to the open market now, before this imminent purchase order is announced. But we don't see this either. So exactly how is Warbucks to acquire this large position at a low price?
I stick by my theory. $3 million was the most Warbucks was willing to risk in light of the floorless. He got the shares at $6.24 (which is almost the biggest discount he could have gotten, since the Castle Creek agreement forbids VLNC to sell shares for less than $6.03 until July 27). Coincidentally, the day he got these shares for $6.24, VLNC was in the midst of one of its typical conference call runs to as high as $7.75, fueled even more with the recent announcement of the "orders" from their JV partners. But this conference call strength was weaker than many. Why? Because somebody was furiously unloading 5,000 and 8,000 share blocks into the dozens of 500 and 1,000 share buys. I think that somebody who was doing all the selling was Daddy Warbucks. The stock has been quite weak ever since the mysterious Daddy Warbucks acquired his shares. That is better evidence to me that Warbucks is a seller than your misguided theories to the contrary. |
