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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: E_K_S who wrote (9882)3/24/1997 6:32:00 PM
From: Salah Mohamed   of 42771
 
Hi EKS....About Open Standards

>>Maybe Salah has some additional comments on the PC Week article<<

You well know that my technical knowledge is limited. However, I have
some non-technical comments about this article. Novell has been talking about open standards for about a year now. From this article, it is clear that they are not considered to be a factor in the Internet/Intranet market. They were only mentioned in the section about directorties and nothing else. With Schmidt providing a clear vision on the company direction, Novell will be more prominent in this market.

About MSFT PR regarding NT and NW sales

From the PR:

>>new sales of Windows NT Server grew by nearly 85 percent, outselling
new units of NetWare 4.x by more than two times.<<

This statement is made by MSFT. Observe that they are talking about
"new sales", not total sales including upgrades, and then they confuse
the issue further by talking about unit sales. Now, it becomes very
mushy, are we talking about "new sales" in "Dollars"...or..."new unit
sales"?. As far as I am concerned, when it comes to server sales the
only meaningful number is "sales in Dollars", because the number of
users for one server can vary widely. In summary, I don't know what
MSFT is talking about.

>>said Lee Doyle, vice president at IDC. "In the fourth quarter of 1996, Windows NT Server outshipped Netware 3.x, 4.x and NetWare Loadable Modules (NLMs) combined."<<

The statement about NLM's is not clear to me, I thought that NLM's are
an integral part of NW, and are used to run applications. In any case,
the fourth quarter of calender 1996 was a boon for NW sales. From Q4-96 and Q1-97 reported results, my estimate of NW sales for calender Q4-96 is 298M. There is no way that NT server sales came close to this number. My best guess is NT server sales were about 150M in this quarter. Note that MSFT never report their NT server sales. Again, I don't know what IDC is talking about. I totally agree with Joe that they better respond to this PR.

About Roxanne G. of Gruntel

I saw Roxanne several times last year on the local business channel in
the LA area, and she never has anything good to say about NOvell. Her
opinion was that they are being killed by MSFT at the low end and the
stock is not a good investment. I am curious to know what she said
about Novell in more details.

More articles about Novell

--------------------------
Details On Novonyx Emerge
(03/21/97; 2:54 p.m. EST)
By Stuart Glascock, Computer Reseller News
techweb.com
--------------------------
Netscape, Novell in Net pact
By Nick Wingfield
March 21, 1997, 3:15 p.m. PT
news.com
--------------------------
Schmidt to buff Novell brand
By Suzanne Galante
March 19, 1997, 6 p.m. PT
news.com
--------------------------

Regards

Salah
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