James...A couple questions from a novice study...
First, on an aside, I think the fourth article you made reference too kind of answers the default time frame question, albeit of it's own accord... Going forward Moody's expects default rates to increase somewhat in the near term and moderate through the end of 1999.
The slowdown in the growth of the rated-issuer base (the denominator in Moody's default rates) will put upward pressure on default rates, but we expect it to be more or less matched by a slowdown in the number of corporate bond defaults, causing the default rate to level-off.
Continued deterioration in the average credit quality of Moody's-rated issuers could apply some added upward pressure on defaults.
A steady interest rate environment and a steady or narrowing high-yield spread should help to keep defaults in check, however.
biz.yahoo.com
As you so well know, Headlines usually have so little to do with the real story anymore.
Second: What are your thoughts on the current price of gold, it's price performance for the near future, and it's influence on the overall world economy?
Third: If other countries like Argentina, Russia, Japan etc. will be slower than expected on the comeback trail, do you think that this will serve to extend the influx of foreign funds into our domestic markets, and consequently continue to "prop" current market valuations?
Thank you for considering my questions.
Best Regards,
John Madarasz
p.s. Any other fresh thoughts from others would be so very much appreciated...especially on the price of gold as a market trend distinguisher and my third point. Thanks again. |
