t2K - I'm not sure there will be any big buying here. In fact, I expect more of a sell-off in MSFT following earnings. First, while good, the earnings will not most likely hit the more optimistic 45-50 cent range I see bandied about on this and other threads. I think the expectations out there are too high. Further, if MSFT does not announce anything about the tracking stock (one of the reasons for the buying on Friday) or anything revolutionary about its internet strategy in the conference call (platitudes about reorganizing, streamlinig, consistent goals etc., just won't do), I just don't see why anyone would get excited. And it is also possible that there may be some guidance regarding less business due to the Y2K over the next quarter or so. All in all, it will be a situation of "good news are already out". Bristol is good, but not good enough for MFs to have a big change of heart, IMO. And what are folks supposed to be looking forward to, and buying MSFT at its high right now, when all they have to look forward to is the tail end of the summer rally, and a nasty second half of the year? I'd say, the odds are that institutions and traders alike will sell MSFT now. It won't matter in 6-7 months, but could be trying until next year. Hope I'm wrong!
Morgan |
