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Non-Tech : The New Iomega '2000' Discussion Group

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To: Rocky Reid who wrote (1796)7/19/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: Dale Stempson  Read Replies (1) of 5023
 
RE: Your 3rd Quarter Estimates:
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Revenues: $353 Million (DOWN 10% Year to Year)
GM: $71 Million (20%)
SG&A: $86 Million (24.5%)
R&D: $23 Million (6.5%)
Earnings (LOSS): -$15 Million ($0.06)
The 40MB Bomb! will post a LOSS of ($11 Million) on sales of $7 Million.
I feel that my Revenues Projection is wildly optimistic.

______________________________

My comments relative to your numbers:

Revenues will be higher due to: 1) Large backlog at end of last quarter, 2) Elimination of chip constraints, 3) Increased Clik! sales, and 4) New OEM SKUs with Zip.

GM% will move higher due to: 1) Change in the OEM/Retail mix as chip restraints fade away, 2) Increased Zip 250 sales, 3) No repeat of taking Jaz capacity reserves, and 4) No repeat of taking Clik! excess inventory reserves.

SG&A and R&D will be lower as a percent of sales. Progress is being made with various cost measures and results should become increasingly evident beginning next quarter.

Earnings will be higher. Am I missing something or do your numbers not add up? GM of $71 less Op Exp of $106 equals Op Loss of ($35). Add back Taxes of $12 and you'd show a Net Loss of ($23) or about ($0.08).

FWIW, I think that if Iomega were to perform according to plan, they could earn $0.04 or $0.05. However, since things seldom go according to plan, I'll knock off a few cents and throw out a WAG of $0.02 for next quarter. In support of seeing at least positive results, I suspect that Jodie will be doing whatever it takes to ensure the company posts a profit.

Regards - Dale
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