NITE Blowout Earnings? Read this YHOO post by a CPA...
--------------------------------
EPS = $.62!!!!! Here's the calculation
by: jwiersch 54052 of 54077
I know I'm going out on a limb here, this is a high number, but I've done the math to support this figure using all the available trade info to date and the last 2 quarters results. You're
welcome to critique. I am a CPA and feel I have a decent understanding of how a large portion of NITE's costs are fixed and how the increased volume has, and will continue to largely fall to the bottom line. Here it is:
4th Qtr 98
Total Shares Traded: 12,017,814,616
Total Trades: 13,796,127
Revenues: $119,278,424
Revenue per trade: $8.65
EPS: .17
1st Qtr 99
Total Shares Traded: 15,943,152,289
Total Trades: 18,691,368
Revenues: $182,664,136
Revenue per trade: $9.77
EPS: .34
NOTE the following increases from 4th Qtr 98 to 1st Qtr 99:
Total Shares traded: +32.66%
Total Trades: +35.48%
Revenue per trade: +13.03%
Revenues: +53.14%
EPS: +100%
Note that NITE volume (shares traded/total trades) increased only about 33%, yet, due to the fact that many of NITEs costs are fixed, revenues increased 53%, and EPS 100%. Now, lets look at the projections for 2nd Qtr of 99:
Shares traded:
NASDAQ: 6,171,293,757 (+8.23% from 1st qtr)
OTBCC: 6,725,808,274 (+80.67% from 1st qtr)
Other: 7,496,354,665 (my estimate,based on +15% from 1st Qtr, consistent with the market)
Total Shares Traded: 20,393,456,969 (+27.91% from 1st Qtr)
Revenues per trade: $11.00 (my estimate, up approx 13%, similar to last quarter (Note that Merrill has said NITEs pre-tax margins for the year will be about 33%, up from 25% in '98)
Revenues: $262,987,132 (up 43.97% from 1st Qtr)
EPS: $.62 (the equivalent of a 53.14% increase in revenues last quarter equalling a 100% increase in EPS last quarter, from .17 to .34)
One thing this calculation doesn't take into account is whether NITE will store some $$ away in some over-accruals of estimated expenses, etc., to make up any 3rd quarter shortfalls. I think they would be silly not to. With that in mind, I expect them to actually report somewhere between $.55 and $.60 per share.
Hope I'm close. Can't wait for Wednesday. Go NITE Go!!!
|
