How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 493.18

-2.8%

11:44 AM EST

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To: chunmun who wrote (26644)	7/19/1999 12:26:00 PM
From: codawg	Read Replies (1) of 74651

If MSFT meets consensus of .36 the stock will likely be pummeled. MSFT has set an expectation for the investment community over many quarters and meeting numbers is not enough. If they meet the whisper of .38 it will probably trade lower. If they exceed the whisper then the odds move into the bulls favor. Looking at the numbers, I see .40 or higher as extremely likely. This is more of an educated guess as I have no access to the real info necessary to make this call. All anecdotal evidence points this way, and if they hit the revenue numbers that Maffei has guided to (5.0 B before accounting changes) then the whisper of .38 is a slam dunk. Please don't forget that other factors on the call will affect the stock price at least as much as the actual earnings number. Most important will be guidance going forward. This will be the first time that Maffei will offer updated guidance for FY 00 since he talked about an expected slowdown last January. I believe in March he said that he did not see as much of a slowdown occurring, but did not offer anything quantitative as he usually will. Upwards guidance for the VERY conservative FY 00 estimates would be a large positive for the stock. Also, as has been reported, he may formally announce an internet tracking stock and this would almost certainly be short term bullish.

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