Bill - no, no, no - your understanding is too shallow (IMO). I never claimed MSFT cannot expand sales in the US, or go into new areas. What I specifically mentioned is the likelihood that *marketshare* of the O/S is not likely to expand (again, not even sales of the O/S - but marketshare). I have no doubt, and indeed, I'm counting on MSFT doing all the wonderful things you mentioned.
But I maintain, *the* key to MSFT's current dominance, its *foundation*, is the dominance (near monopoly) of the desktop PC O/S. It is not a question of $49 for a copy of Win. It is rather the fact, that once MSFT dominates the O/S, it has a "gold-plated" cash cow, with *no competition*, and that functions as a launch pad to further revenue streams (such as applications etc.), and mind/market share.
In all the areas that you mention, or new ventures, MSFT always has to face competition, there are no guarantees, and it lives and dies by the product cycle. Not so with the O/S. Now imagine billions of Chinese, Indians, Europeans, Latin Americans - all beholden to the MSFT O/S, experiencing Windows crashes on a regular basis... what a glorious vision for the MSFT shareholder. From those "billions and billions" (a nod to Carl Sagan) of PCs, MSFT can spread like an inoperable, and therefore irremovable cancer. All those new areas *you* mention, are not nearly as secure - statistically not likely they'll manage that near-monopoly of a 'must-have' product that really makes MSFT stock secure, and that is the well-spring of its power.
Yes, all the things that you mention are important, and I'm counting on MSFT making strides in all areas of the software industry and beyond. But keep your eye on the ball.
That is why, I regard the MSFT O/S growth internationally, the touchstone of its development as an investment par excellence. I watch it like a hawk.
Morgan |
