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How can this earnings report and subsequent conference call be seen as anything but extremely bullish? The bottom line is that $.86/share becomes THE BASE going forward. There are no more special charges, no more pro forma numbers. The next quarter is clean, and you can START your calculations at $.86/share. Now, the analyst community is presently at $.69/share for next quarter, and averaging $2.76 for 00, with a high of $3.05. They are way way off again. We know they will raise estimates to at least $3.50, and likely significantly higher. Tomorrow, they will raise estimates significantly for next quarter, this fiscal year, and next fiscal year. Margins on phones will be higher, number of phones made will be higher, more ASICs, higher royalties--all in the face of component shortages. Total CDMA handsets worldwide, higher than expected. Where does one extract pessimism? Did you not notice the awe with which the analysts kept addressing that $.86 number as a BASE GOING FORWARD? How many times did they ask about it in disbelief? How many times did management belittle the component shortage question as merely a cap on magnificent growth? I listen to a lot of conference calls, and, believe me, this was a bullish conference call. When every single analyst is absolutely positively wrong on his present and future numbers, stocks go up. |
