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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (4069)7/19/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
>> Was the mean estimate of $.62 the pro forma or diluted?

There are a LOT of confused people on the Q thread. We gorilla gamers aspire to a higher standard. (Just kidding, so no e-mails, PULEEZE!)

I'm gonna say this only once, folks. Are ya ready?

The magic number is $.86 because it is both pro forma AND diluted. That's the number that we compare to last quarter's $.60.

Just yesterday I wrote that I would be shocked to see 50% sequential growth. Even at a 43% increase I'm shocked. I have to believe I've seen better quarterly reports, but I sure can't remember when.

There's so much info in the report I can't begin to approach the details tonight, but I can tell you to ignore everything I've mentioned in the past about a $2.40 run rate. In fact, it doesn't make any sense at all to use a run rate (even for conservative purposes) when there is such a strong sequential increase.

As an example, the company has achieved $1.46 pro forma earnings in the last two quarters, which is already 61% of the run rate. It blows away any reason to use a run rate, making things difficult because now we have to try and figure what the quarterly increases will be. That's much more difficult and is truly the stuff of analysts, which is what I am NOT.

The other thing that makes it difficult is that analysts' published estimates are proving, as many of us insisted, to be way low. I sure would like to see their unpublished estimates. :)

--Mike Horse's Ass Buckley (for telling Lindy we wouldn't see 50% sequential increases)
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