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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (4756)	7/19/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: Tim McCormick	Read Replies (1) of 12823

All that they can do is keep issuing more stock, and putting lots of cash on the balance sheet to soften the blow when the mania cools. Or they can use their overpriced currency to buy private companies. But there is no hope of the market supporting all the pure plays. ALA and CSCO own 70%+ of the chipset and systems market. Add up the market cap of AWRE, GSPN, ORCT, PDYN, and RBAK. Throw in 10% of ADI, BRCM, CNXT, MOT, PAIR and TXN: the non ALA+CSCO 30% is left to support all these billions which doesn't even include everybody. And this is just the chipset and management systems market, not the full cost of C&R modems, DSLAMS and NGDLCs. Although LU and CSCO outsource chipsets now, they will bypass the specialists in the longrun. Watch out for "softDSL" solutions coming out of Asia which are supported by the CPU mothership. Look out for companies like Centillium and Itex. And don't forget about the nonstandard Etherloop from NT. Say 3 years from now we're at an install runrate of 10 million per year. At $50 for both chipsets per line that is $500 million of which there is only $150 million to support all the chipset vendors. Tim

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