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Strategies & Market Trends : Daytrading OEX options with a method, not a trading system

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To: John F. Summa who wrote ()7/20/1999 9:25:00 AM
From: John F. Summa   of 62
 
OptionsNerd.com Morning Briefing
Tuesday, 7/20/99

Market Comments: Overseas equity markets are mixed (Europe lower, Asia
higher). S&P 500 futures pointing to a moderately lower opening for U.S. stocks (S&P 500 Futures are trading 6.18 points below fair value).

Microsoft's revenue growth warning for year 2000 may take the techs
down further today, and set the general tone for the day, despite
easily beating the Street along with IBM.

Given our overbought conditions (see put/call ratios below), we may see the beginning of some more aggressive profit taking today, which should set up a nice put play entry point by late morning.

As always, we will keep you posted regarding any trade signals.

Please note: The Morning Briefing is now posted at the OptionsNerd.com
homepage, so if you have not received it in your email box by 9:15 EDT
(due to ISP problems here or on your end) you may view it there.

Happy Trading!

_________________________
Outlook for U.S. Equities

Short-Term Outlook
(1-3 days): Neutral-to-Bearish
Medium-Term Outlook
(1-4 weeks) Neutral-to-Bearish
Long-Term Outlook
(8-16 months) Bearish

______________________
Financial and Overseas
Equity Markets
(8:14 AM EDT)

Paris CAC 40: -0.95%
Frankfurt DAX: -1.48%
London FTSE-100: -0.64%
Japan Nikkei: CLOSED
HK Hang Seng: +1.14%
$/Yen +.21% [8:20 EDT]
$/DMark -.85%[8:20 EDT]
30-Year T-Bond Yield: 5.91% (+.49%)[8:52 EDT]
S&P 500 Futures: -7.00 [8:49 EDT]

Comments: Overseas equity markets are mixed (Europe lower, Asia
higher). S&P 500 futures pointing to a moderately lower opening for U.S. stocks (S&P 500 Futures are trading 6.18 points below fair value).
_______________________________________
OEX Options, S&P Futures and Stock News

U.S. stock index futures end mostly weaker (Reuters)
biz.yahoo.com - Jul 19 5:49 PM EDT

U.S. debt futures end narrowly mixed (Reuters)
biz.yahoo.com - Jul 19 5:22 PM EDT

________________________
Major Averages and Indexes
(Previous Close)

DJIA:-0.2%
DJTA: +1.8%*
DJUA: +0.4%
S&P 500: -0.8%
NASDAQ: -1.2%
Russell 2000: -0.8%
NYSE Comp.:-0.7%
AMEX: -0.1%

*Transports failing to confirm 1999 DJIA new highs--bearish divergence.
________________
OEX (S&P 100) Daily Data

High=735.73
Low=726.59
Close=728.04
Change= -5.75 (-0.8%)
Pivot=730.12
Pivot 3DMA=728.76
10-Day Average Daily (Outside) Range=11.47*
R1=733.65
S1=724.51
R2=739.61
S2=720.98

*To project today's high/low, add this value to the low of the first
hour of trading (=projected day's high) and subtract it from the high
of the first hour of trading (=projected day's low). These projected levels would apply if a daily trend develops outside of the first hour of trading. This is not an exact science, but does give a basic framework to help with trading decisions.
_______________
S&P 500 Futures
Settlement Prices
Previous Trading Day
SEP99 (Spoos)

Open=1427.30
High=1431.20
Low=1413.50
Last=1417.50
Settlement=1418.00
Change=-950
_______________
Market Internals

NYSE Volume=641Million (-)
NYSE Breadth= -558 (-)*
NYSE Up/Dwn Vol Ratio= 0.5 (-)
NYSE 10-DMA Adv/Dec Ratio=0.96 (-)
NYSE New High/New Lows=93/35 (-)
TICK=+210
TRIN=1.35

*NYSE cumulative advance-decline remains in bearish decline, as do
cumulative advance-decline lines for all major U.S. stock exchanges
(data not shown here).
________________
Market Sentiment

Equity Only Put-Call Daily Ratio=.42 (+)
Equity Only Put-Call Ratio 10-DMA=.39 (+)*
OEX Put-Call Ratio Daily=1.73 (+)
OEX Put-Call Ratio 10-DMA=1.29 (+)
Total CBOE Put-Call Ratio=.52 (+)
Total CBOE Put-Call Ratio 10DMA= 0.51**
VIX= 19.47(Previous Close=18.13 ) (Change= +7.39%)

* Bearish
**Bearish
_________________
OEX Trade Positions

OEX1: Flat OEX. No trades.
_____________________________________________________________

**Disclaimer: Trading is risky business. Past performance can never
guarantee futures results. Trade at your own risk. All losses are your
own.
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