Robert, This whole brouhaha between the FSA and the Swiss is very scary. First, there is the idea that so many traders in the derivative con are hiding losing trades so nobody will notice them. As the banks continue to pile on the derivatives. In a bet big to win small game, pyramiding to make up for losers is a sure recipe for disaster.
The greatest fear I have is an outbreak of financial, not economic, nationalism. If US banks have been doing well on derivatives, due to leaks from Greenspan and Co., then somebody else is sucking wind. When these institutions inevitably have to pay up, there will be nothing to pay with, IMHO. Then, instead of working it out like was done with Barings, I fear each country saying to hell with foreign banks and wiping out the debt. That could take down the entire house of cards and be worse than even the bears want it to be. |
