Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: GuitarMan who wrote (18289)	7/20/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: Marconi	of 18691

Hello Mr. Lenkei: possible sources of corrections-- Do you think the dollar vs. yen situation is a possible flashpoint? I've been watching BOJ saber rattling. I was surprised our Fed knocked the dollar versus yen last night. Struck me as unusual. If our Fed paper starts flowing back from Japan, that would put us in new territory with potentially electric dynamics. I wonder if it would be enough to be self-fueling in which case the central bankers attempts at tweaking interventions will be a pebble (futile) bump in a rocky road. My guess if that happens the real action will be in the derivatives area and not many will have a clue as to what is going on or will happen in that seclusive and generally unreported area. I remain convinced the derivatives area remains a wild west show that is untested yet in how stampedes are handled. And if that is the case, I would rather be on the sidelines well out of reach from the herd, if that can be possible. But I suspect strongly I will involuntarily be on the ride anyway. Best regards, m

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