Taipei's Stress With Beijing
May Last Until Lee Retires
By MATT FORNEY and IAN JOHNSON
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
As nervous markets and worried Asian policy makers try to gauge the day-to-day fallout of the latest spat between Taiwan and China, many are predicting that the scrap could go on for months. Eight months, to be precise.
Mr. Lee sparked the latest fight by describing Taiwan's relations with China as being that of between two states. This is taboo language in China, which has viewed Taiwan as a renegade province since Mao Tse-tung's Communists swept to power in Beijing in 1949 and the previous government fled to Taiwan.
Force Isn't Ruled Out
On Monday, Taiwan newspapers reported that Chinese military aircraft had crossed over into Taiwan airspace, though Taiwan's military subsequently denied this. Separately, Chinese President Jiang Zemin told U.S. President Bill Clinton that Beijing wouldn't rule out using force to prevent Taiwan from seeking independence, state media reported.
For the moment, though, China has been concentrating on identifying Mr. Lee as being solely responsible for the latest problem. Monday, for example, an editorial by the state-run Xinhua news agency, which was widely reprinted in newspapers across China, said Mr. Lee had driven Taiwan "into a dead alley" and was fighting the "historical tide" of reunification.
The isolation of the Taiwan president gives some analysts reason to believe China will simply wait Mr. Lee out.
"Most people think the tension will last at least until the presidential election next March," says Wu Yu-shan, a political scientist at National Taiwan University.
China's other choices -- large-scale military exercises, or threats to Taiwan's economy -- also are fraught with hazards. But even a rhetorical barrage can have consequences. Last week, Taiwan's stock market dropped 14%. It calmed Monday, climbing 0.28%, mainly because of large-scale buying by Taiwan-government funds. China's stock markets closed sharply lower Monday. Shanghai's Class B-share market, reserved for foreign investors, fell 8.8%, while the local Class A-share market dropped 2.6%.
Explanations Demanded
So far, Beijing has steered toward demanding that Taiwan explain its new policy. Taipei hasn't replied, though its position has shifted somewhat since Mr. Lee's unexpected remarks on July 10. Senior officials have said Taiwan is ready to engage in talks on any subject, including unification, if Beijing accepts the state-to-state formulation.
One thing Beijing will want to hear is whether Taiwan plans to back up its new policy with legal changes. Taiwan's constitution still claims sovereignty over all of China, as it has since Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist, or Kuomintang, army fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the Chinese civil war. The next logical step toward real statehood would be to amend those articles and renounce this last vestige of Taiwan's claim to govern all of China. Such a move could be considered a true declaration of independence, and the mainland hasn't ruled out using force to block such a move.
"The most fundamental issue now is the legal and constitutional change," notes Mr. Wu. "Everything is reversible, as long as it doesn't reach that stage."
If Beijing doesn't like what it hears, it could call off a planned visit to Taipei of Wang Daohan, secretary-general of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait. That trip, planned for October, would be the highest-level delegation from China to Taiwan in a half-century. Canceling it could severely limit China's options, since little short of Taiwan retracting the new state-to-state policy would make similar trips possible in the future.
Missile Threats
Another choice is large-scale military exercises. The last time Mr. Lee irked Beijing's leaders was in 1995, when he became Taiwan's first president to visit the U.S. China responded with two rounds of intense military drills, the second one timed to coincide with the island's first direct presidential elections in 1996. In an effort to intimidate voters, China fired a series of missiles into waters as little as 56 kilometers away from Taiwan's busiest ports.
The results couldn't have satisfied Beijing. Mr. Lee won 54% of the ballots in a three-way race, earning a huge victory margin and the mandate to stand up to China again.
There's little reason to think more military exercises would cause average Taiwanese to turn away from their leader this time, either. Mr. Lee's decision to scrap the one-China policy enjoys roughly 70% support, according to the latest polls, so at least in principle most voters are behind him. Another round of provocative missile tests risks making China look like it has only bluster. Tests also could either cause Taiwanese to rally around Mr. Lee's party in the March presidential elections or play into the hands of the Democratic Progressive Party, the island's leading opposition group, which advocates independence from China.
"If we enjoyed good and peaceful relations, by consent, then Taiwan could follow in China's footsteps," says Lin I-hsiung, chairman of the DPP. Instead, he says, "they fire these missiles, but don't explain the benefits of unifying to the Taiwanese people. If the U.S. or Japan wanted to make Taiwan part of their countries, I don't think the Taiwanese people would be so afraid" as they are of joining with China.
--Jesse Wong in Taipei contributed to this article.
PS
One Hong Kong newspaper, Sing Tao Daily, reported Tuesday that China's top prosecutor's office is gathering evidence to press treason charges against Mr. Lee and his allies. It was unclear how China could hope to capture the Taiwanese president and put him on trial |
