Jd,
I am just trying to keep separate my technical reasoning skills, from my understanding of the way market acts, from human instinct to be greedy.
Since I'm looking out 3-4 years, I'm not (that) worried about the daily ups and downs of the stock price. I invest on fundamentals and the management teams of the companies I invest in. I'm betting that Intel can make this happen. I'm betting on the experts that I've talked to (both in my professional life and on SI) who say that this is an expandable technology versus a dead-end technology (SDRAM, DDR DRAM, SLDRAM [oops, gone already]). I'm betting that all the companies that have decided to go with RDRAM have weighed the options carefully and chose RDRAM, even knowing that it would be expensive at first and that it would require significant infrastructure changes. (BTW, the Platform99 presentation that Burgoo pointed to was immediately suspect for me because it said that DDR DRAM would not require significant infrastructure changes, which is pure BS).
I'm very comfortable with the bet I've placed. I almost bought more as we came down yesterday, but decided to wait once The Register article came out. I didn't buy by the end of the day, figuring I'd wait and get it cheaper today. Well, that didn't happen. So now I agree with someone's post earlier today that, in addition to the question of what all these companies that have supported RDRAM know that the bears don't know, what do the analysts and investment community know that we don't know. By all my reckonings, we should have continued down today. Someone knows something.
Dave |
