Hello stockforme & all - the Taiwan issue is much more complicated. To begin with, Taiwan does have a fairly decent army [I believe it is still on a mandatory basis.] The US really has no choice but to try to calm both sides down. She has no choice because she is treaty bounded to supply Taiwan with enough defensive capabilities. OTOH, my guess is that not a whole lot of pols, donkeys and elephants alike, would enjoy being the backer of Taiwan in the even of war with China - unlikely it may be.
I ve stated my suspicion here several times already. In a nutshell, I do not think President Lee is aiming for Independence. Rather, it is a game he plays to help his political ally at home and to a smaller extent to gain some leverage with Beijing.
IMHO, if a war did break out, not only would the HK market go into a tailspin, but also all the major markets. The funny part is that if that happened, even T-bills would not be safe. Well, I guess the goldbugs are licking their chops now <VBG>
best, Bosco |
