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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 473.99+0.4%Nov 24 3:59 PM EST
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To: t2 who wrote (26914)7/20/1999 6:25:00 PM
From: johnd  Read Replies (2) of 74651
 
Djia, Uncle Frank:

I would love to sit tight. But In Jan, while I was wrong
by selling at 152, it was only a short while that I was
wrong. The stock went down to 141 after that and I was
able to load up and gained quite a bit.

Overall I am with you. Buy and hold, average.

I do know why I am getting chicken feet. I think it is because
I was expecting a more positive move on MSFT into 105 - 108
levels after reporting what I thought msft would report.

The problem I think is not what they reported for q4 but what
they said about future. "Margins WILL NOT improve". "WILL NOT" is
a very strong statement. "Keep your 1.56 estimates unchanged"
That is the first time I heard CFO say don't add a penny or 2
for the next 2 Qs. I don't give too much to Y2k, economic and
PC sales slowing down stuff. I think those comments are routine.

But the margins, not asking to increase estimates, are serious
issues. Why would CFO do that? Last 3-4 quarters he didn't do
anything like that.

Even more so, it is wall street reaction. I have never seen this
kind of sell-off after an MSFT earnings release in a long time.

And I am not shorting MSFT. Just holding cash for 1/2 of my
position.

I want to be ahead of rest of wall street in case there is a
serious correction and we see DOW at 8000 and NASDAQ under 2000.

When that happens I want to have cash to buy cheap. If the correction
doesn't happen I will be happy with the appreciation on the other
half and the 5% on Money market
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