Thanks, CanynGirl for that - it explains a lot. I've been watching Thompsons quite a bit in conjunction w/ LII and T&S (plus rt volume charts), to try to get a feel for how it correlates, and so that I'll have some feel for how to interpret the data.
It has been my experience that when the triangles crossed the price line, the volume would pick up, and in the majority of the cases (though not 100%) react to the direction of the triangle (down for sell, up for buy). I therefore drew the conclusion that *in general* that's what is happening. I did read on the site itself, the explanations for "super" messages, where they say, it only expresses interest, and is not the actual execution. Which is why I wrote a lenghthy post on the MSFT board regarding how to judge whether the orders were actually executed or only expressed interest. There are also further issues beyond the obvious - not all such stuff is reported so that it comes across Thompsons radar, but also the possibility that when you see several traingles shadowing the price, it could actually be just ONE limit order interest which keeps shifting as the stock moves, rather than distinct players.
In any case, it is true that it's impossible to be absolutely sure if interest translates into an actual transaction. However, unless the tool is to be completely useless, I figured I'd try to do some *empirical* work to see how the correlations work out. That is how I came to the conclusion about the triangle crossing priceline=execution, as by later going over the printout of the LII and T&S action it seemed to most closely obtain. However, you are right, it is not correct to leave the impression that this represents a firm rule, rather than a probability scenario - thank you for clarifying that. I will continue to monitor Thompsons, and try to draw some kind of conclusions - basically in an attempt to see if this is a useful tool, or random and meaningless data fragments... I'm always striving for that additional edge. Thank you, and good job!
Good luck!
Morgan |
