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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: Dayuhan who wrote (8879)7/20/1999 8:43:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
but would they be willing to go to war with China over it? China wouldn't need to have anyone pulling for them; Taiwan would. A big difference.

Well, I guess it all depends on the Chinese leadership in Bejing.

An invasion of Taiwan would disrupt the entire region and make an aggressive Chinese gov't the pre-eminent power in the region (were the US not to respond).

So the question... if Chinese policy is to stir up regional tensions over an old communist/nationalist dispute, then we can basically assume the pluralization of Chinese society is all a sham.

Assuming that... then the issue is whether to face the Chinese hardliners down now, or wait until later when they may be more capable to attack us?

Bejing lacks the ability to effectively attack Taiwan. They lack the airlift and sealift to transport and support their troops. However, they can blockade and launch limited air strikes (which would likely be shot down).

The Taiwanese armed forces aren't comparable to the PLA in size, but they certainly are in quality of equipment and motivation of their soldiers. They know that a Bejing takeover would be devastating for their economy.

There could be some nasty rhetoric, but I don't think Bejing will attack Taiwan. But should they do so, I fully support a massive response by the US and the UN.

If not, then we look forward to the conquest of Taiwan, then the Koreas, and then Japan... all of these will fall under their influence and away from democratic ideals, IMO.

Regards,

Ron
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