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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (52459)7/20/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (3) of 86076
 
Just posting to you because you were the last to post on the thread.

Boy this thread got bearish fast. I haven't downloaded my data yet but I am not anywhere near convinced this is a BK and actually was trying to sell my puts on the close and missed. (I have taken leave so I can stay home the rest of the week though and finish out my trades <gg>)

First thing, I fully would expect some sort of a bounce tomorrow since every single hard down day I have seen since Rubin took over resulted in the Fed injecting liquidity over night to prime the open ofthe next day and do damage control. His replacement has studied this pattern and I seriously doubt he will deviate from the norm on his first encounter with a harsh drop in the market.

Also, Don has already stated in his last (sniff, sniff) index update that we were in Class 2 buy territory and could get to class 1 if the selling continued which it did the rest of the afternoon. Now how this Class buy butts heads with his normal three day pattern is going to be interesting to say the least. I will probably do what I usually do in my overly cautious trading style and sell my puts at the first sign of danger then wait it out and see what happens except for scalp trades here and there.

To balance this out however, we haven't seen a large spike in volume yet nor an extreme negative TICK reading near the low yet. Therefor, I do expect another push down in the near future before a genuine bounce. Also the decline was neat and orderly so far. No sign of panic etc. Lots of buy the dipsters staggering the drop all the way down.

That is all I really have to say so far since I don't have my charts available yet.

Great article you posted. This would make LTCM seem like nothing.

EDIT - WOW - I am lost. I thought I was on the MDA thread until I posted this and saw the heading. I better sell everything and take a break <g>

Good Luck,

Lee
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