A question about valuation. I was looking at the Citrix Page and
found some numbers regarding the server based computing market. They
claim that the market will be about $16B in 2001. I took the figures
and roughed things in as follows:
1. Assume that Citrix has 25% of the market in 2001. This would
seem to be a conservative estimate.
2. Assume that the net margin is 30%. This is about the current
Microsoft and Intel margin, so this might be a fair guess.
Revenues: 4,000,000,000
Net (30%): 1,200,000,000
Taxes(33%): 400,000,000
Income: 800,000,000
Shares (rough): 100,000,000
EPS: 8.00
Analysts project $1.60 EPS in 2000. If the market is growing this
fast, Citrix should probably be closer to $2.50-$3.00 EPS in 2000.
At this stock price, $2.50-$3.00 gives them a PE in the vicinity of
20.
Does anyone have a feel for the real numbers?
Thanks,
dm |
