Obasanjo Successful Abroad, Challenged at Home
Summary:
Nigeria's first democratically elected president in 20 years,
Olusegun Obasanjo, has succeeded in polishing the tarnished
international image of Nigeria. Until July 18, he had yet to be
challenged at his second role, maintaining order among Nigeria's
250 plus ethnic groups -- especially the Hausa that controlled
the former military government and his own Yoruba. A two-day
clash between Hausa and Yoruba in the village of Shagamu on July
18-19 left 66 people dead, and though the fighting has ceased,
the tension has not. Obasanjo responded to this clash
moderately, and if the violence does not recur or spread, it may
bode well for his domestic agenda. If ethnic tensions worsen,
however, the Hausa dominated military may reconsider its decision
to hand over power to a civilian president -- particularly a
military one.
Analysis:
Violence erupted on July 18 between members of the Yoruba and
Hausa ethnic groups in the southern Nigerian town of Shagamu and
carried on into the following day. At least 66 people were
killed in the town, which lies some 40 kilometers north of Lagos.
And while a tense peace has emerged at the urging of local
leaders -- and with the arrival of a Mobile Police Force
detachment -- Hausas fearful of Yoruba retaliation reportedly
flooded out of the town on July 19 and have not yet returned.
The Shagamu violence follows clashes between three other ethnic
groups -- Itsekiri, the Urhobo, and Ijaw -- over the spoils of
local government in the oil town of Warri on the eve of newly
elected President Olusegun Obasanjo's inauguration in late May,
which left at least 100 people dead.
International acclaim for the recent democratic transition in
Nigeria has overshadowed the primary, fundamental, and ongoing
problem facing President Obasanjo. Nigeria's political problems
stem from competition between the country's estimated 250 ethnic
groups, and particularly between the two largest groups, the
Hausa in the north and the Yoruba in the south. Obasanjo was
tapped for the presidency by a group of northern military leaders
for two reasons. One was to polish up Nigeria's international
reputation with at least a reasonable facsimile of democratically
elected civilian government. The other was, if not to bridge the
gap between the competing ethnic groups, then at least to blunt
ethnic unrest.
Obasanjo succeeded in the first task. Obasanjo, who led
Nigeria's military government from 1976-1979 following the
assassination of General Murtala Muhammad, was the first Nigerian
military leader to voluntarily hand over power to a
democratically elected civilian government. Until his own
inauguration, he was also the only military leader to do so.
When last in power, Obasanjo built an international reputation
for his foreign policy, which was critical of the white minority
governments in South Africa and Zimbabwe. After stepping down,
and thereby boosting his international credentials, Obasanjo
remained in the public eye, sitting on international commissions,
running for UN Secretary General, and criticizing subsequent
Nigerian military regimes. Obasanjo was sentenced to life in
prison under former military leader General Sani Abacha for
allegedly plotting a coup attempt, though his sentence was
shortened due to international pressure and he was released
following Abacha's death last year.
Obasanjo's first two months in office have seen him acting the
statesman. He has attended the Organization of African Unity
Summit in Algiers and visited countries all over Africa. He has
also been keen to put himself in the forefront of international
efforts to end the region's various wars. All told, Obasanjo was
the most politically viable and acceptable candidate, and when
Nigeria's military leaders relinquished power to him, they
succeeded in mending Nigeria's image -- for the time being.
Success on the second count is not so clear. Obasanjo was backed
by a cabal of northern Nigerian interests, including former
Nigerian leader General Ibrahim Babangida, in large part because
Obasanjo was a pro-northern Yoruba. It was hoped that, through a
Yoruba president with a Hausa power base, the Hausa could
effectively maintain power while pacifying the Yoruba. The
Yoruba had lost their political leader, Moshood Abiola, to an
apparent -- if curiously timed -- heart attack almost immediately
after the death of General Sani Abacha.
However, Obasanjo has been criticized even in his own home
district as being a puppet of the military. The make-up of his
cabinet does little to undermine this notion as it is filled with
people who have, at various times in the past, served in the
military governments that have largely dominated Nigeria for the
last 30 years. And while mistrusted by the Yoruba, Obasanjo is
also mistrusted by the Hausa, who are unsure of just how devoted
he is to their interests. According to media sources, there is a
growing fear among the Hausa that they may face repercussions
under their new Yoruba president for the past 15 years of Hausa
politico-military dominance.
The violence in Shagamu is the first real test of Obasanjo's
ability to bridge the ethnic gap. As of July 20 the situation
appears to be stable, with minimum government intervention. A
curfew has been established, a Mobile Police Force detachment has
been sent into the area, and an investigation is underway. The
Shagamu clash thus far appears to be an isolated incident, and to
be under control. The underlying issues have not gone away,
however, and Obasanjo's moderate response may not be as effective
should the unrest spread or recur in Shagamu.
Obasanjo is essentially faced with two choices when it comes to
ethnic violence. He can attempt to protect his carefully crafted
international and domestic image as a democrat and act benignly
toward outbreaks of violence. Or he can crack down on freedoms
in an effort to suppress the violent ethnic competition. This is
how military governments in Nigeria dealt with ethnic tension for
30 years -- albeit to the detriment of their international
reputation.
For now, Obasanjo is primarily interested in the international
game, and is hoping that a mild hand, his image as a peacemaker,
and deep divisions among the Yoruba will suffice to control
outbreaks of violence such as those in Warri and Shagamu. This
remains to be seen. There have been calls for retribution,
particularly from the Yoruba, but leaders of both groups are
attempting to quiet things down. If, however, there is a spiral
of violence and revenge, Obasanjo may be forced to crack down --
or have the military do it for him.
__________________________________________________
SUBSCRIBE to FREE, DAILY GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU)
stratfor.com
or send your name, organization, position, mailing
address, phone number, and e-mail address to
alert@stratfor.com
UNSUBSCRIBE FROM THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE UPDATES (GIU)
stratfor.com
___________________________________________________
STRATFOR.COM
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: stratfor.com
Email: info@stratfor.com
___________________________________________________
(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.
|
