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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Michael Burry who wrote (7803)7/21/1999 7:30:00 AM
From: valueminded  Read Replies (1) of 78476
 
Mike:

The biggest risk is a reduction in the buyout price followed by a delay in consummating the deal (imo) Assume that the info on Yahoo is true and the deal is delayed from oct to jan. The three month time premium risk alone would reduce the present value by about 1.5% depending on your yield instruments. Obviously the market has priced in some "deal flexibility" as they expect the deal price to be reduced or delayed.

Question, since Case has a relatively high debt load, New Hollands will probably roll over to New Holland debt (other option payoff=unlikely) If it is rolled over, the bond holders will want a premium no doubt for their trouble. This alone increases time risk (negotiation time) and possible the takeover premium as I am unsure how NH is accounting for this in the 4.3 billion. What are your thoughts ? thanks
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