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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: wonk who wrote (4719)7/21/1999 10:15:00 AM
From: WTC  Read Replies (3) of 12823
 
Wireless Wonk, others: I note that you are apparently examining the practical feasibility of optical transmission in the world of real weather conditions. I find the prospect of a successful, relatively economical optical product deployment intriguing, insofar as the impact on mmwave companies that have assembled a national footprint of spectrum. If we stipulated success of such an optical product, such as the one announced recently by Lucent, does that not effectively replicate the Winstar, Nextlink, or Teligent spectrum holdings for any company that wants to deploy broadband systems using unlicensed "light?"

I would not expect the products to be perfectly comparable, either from a performance or cost standpoint (but perhaps far superior as to payload), however, if such systems turn out to be broadly deployable, it seems that the value premium of the national footprint plays that is based solely on their successful aggregation of spectrum licenses would be highly eroded. Would that not at least give pause to a prospective acquisition of these companies, and thereby erase some of the anticipated control premium that may already be incorporated in the share price, in anticipation of another AT&T - Associated deal?

I don't expect perfect alignment between the engineering reality and the business valuations, but it seems in time there should be some convergence if optical transmission can be economically feasible.
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