Morgan.......
I'm reading all this action differently. Your take is
pessimistic -- understandably so, given the behavior of the
stock. While I have no way of knowing for sure, just watching
the action over the past month or so suggests that a large
part of the decline is due to uncertainty about the decline
itself, coupled with the lockup expiry. People sell when they
see other people sell, or when they see other people negative.
People buy when they see other people buy (also daytraders),
or see other people positive.
What feeds the uncertainty is the negative press on OLBs,
Barron's article, ECN uncertainty, spreads etc etc.
I don't know about a move to 48 helping (its not clear to me why
its necessary to see 48). But what will help is a start of buying
activity -- even a small start (like today), and some information
that helps to clear up the issue of the decline.
I am almost certain now that we have been witnessing selling
of shares from lockup expiry (especially given the volume of
retail sells). With institutions accumulating, the decline will
stop at some point (today, perhaps). Then we'll see positive press
from brokerage houses, and an uptrend will start. Hopefully, it will
be today, or soon. But we need retail selling and the accumulation
at these levels to either stop or gradually move to higher levels.
Joseph |
