...If we stipulated success of such an optical product, such as the one announced recently by Lucent, does that not effectively replicate the Winstar, Nextlink, or Teligent spectrum holdings for any company that wants to deploy broadband systems using unlicensed "light?"
At this moment, even if we stipulate success, I wouldn't go so far as to say that with optical techniques one could replicate the national footprints of the broadband wireless players.
Rather, I would characterize it as having another arrow in the quiver, and a powerful one at that.
.... if such systems turn out to be broadly deployable, it seems that the value premium of the national footprint plays that is based solely on their successful aggregation of spectrum licenses would be highly eroded....
Admittedly, I'm quibbling over adjectives; the one that bothers me is "highly."
Yes I think that reliable, cost effective optical links could erode the value of the national footprint players. However, I can't see optical being a perfect substitute (as the economists define the word) for broadband wireless, particularly because BBW can do point-to-multipoint and I can't envision - given what Frank has talked about in terms of the implementation realities - of similar functionality in the near term.
However, I can see, quite clearly, how cost effective, reliable optical transmission equipment could knock the stuffing out of the incremental value of additional spectrum over some minimum threshold. If one could offload the highest density customer locations to an optical mesh system - (with either wire or wireless on hot standby as the economics dictate, albeit probably at reduced functionality) - then maybe one could initiate a competitive service, in even the largest markets, with for example a single 100 MHZ 38 Ghz channel.
I think it's far easier to collect a national footprint, or easier yet, a regional footprint, with a little bit of spectrum rather than a lot.
...I don't expect perfect alignment between the engineering reality and the business valuations, but it seems in time there should be some
convergence if optical transmission can be economically feasible.
Ultimately, the one metric which matters is return on invested capital - a great leveler <g>. |
