Lorne,
Glad to see you back here....Just a few facts to clarify the current state of affairs.
1. Snap Lake is the single largest diamond deposit, tonnage wise, known to date in the NWT, and is open with the potential to double or triple current tonnage, however, the combined tonnage of the multiple pipes at Diavik and Ekati do currently exceed the drill indicated tonnage to date at Snap Lake.....
2. Aber has a pipe that has a higher implied value per tonne BUT, if the average value per tonne of the series of pipes they hope to mine are considered, Snap Lake is also the highest implied value per tonne....
3. DMM is currently mining their highest grade pipe....the other pipes are lower grade, and would not be economic by themselves....DMM also has the upcoming expense of underground development costs on their single higher grade pipe(koala?)......and their cash flow will drop when they move to lower grade pipes with added ore transport costs, in addition to pit development costs at each pipe.
4. Each project has its own plus's and minus's....for example, Aber has the additional expense of a $250 million dyke to build around their pipes so they can mine them...the extra costs and additional time taken before production have a BIG impact on ROI....they will also have additional costs atached to shifting to underground mining as well.
5. DMM has the development costs of EACH pipe to bear PLUS the trucking/transport costs of the ore and decreasing grades ahead of them....
6. Mechanized mining with hydraulic jumbo's , slushers, muckers etc., especially in a uniform body like the Snap Lake dyke is very cost effective and can be as low as $40 tonne.....they won't have to build dykes, get permits to drain lakes or transport ore by haul trucks for miles and miles across the tundra(haul road construction costs aren't cheap either)....
In summary, open pit mining a number of pipes in the NWT isn't all roses either.....on a comparative basis, Snap Lake has some of its own rather attractive advantages that Diavik and Ekati can only dream of.......and don't forget that WSP has about 700,000 tonnes of open pit ore for rapid payback of initial development costs, while underground development is underway....
My WSP shares are tucked away in the drawer for the next 12 to 18 months......IMO, the biggest and best gains to be made on WSP are yet to come......
regards,
teevee |
