Is this from afterhours trading? If so, how and where are you getting the info? Please P. Webster, educate us newbies to this concept. I hate others being able to do what I cannot!
Got into a 1000 IDXX this AM, put in a market order about 90 secs after the open, got it at 12 3/8, but it took Lombard about 13 minutes to fill and notify me. Not sure if typically this slow, or if the volume on this stock slows the fill. Got a better price as it worked out anyways. Open was higher, kind of interesting how it dropped a bit after the opening surge.
Hope this Cat ain't dead yet, but just sleeping off a tough one and one of its eight remaining lives kicks in soon. Time to do some research.
OK, check these numbers out, I think this pussy really got hit by an extreme overreaction. From what I could tell yesterdays 60% drop really seems like a gross overreaction by the market, more like punishment with a cat-o-nine tails than a true change in fundamentals.
Check out these numbers:
Q ending Rev Net Income Income/share
3/31/96 $57.4M $6.959M $0.18
6/30/96 $65.9M $7.9M $0.20
9/30/96 $69.8M $8.55M $0.22
Estimates $60-65M $0.787M-1.968M $0.02-0.05
3/24/97
Press
Release
Why: "IDEXX said the earnings shortfall was due to lower-than-anticipated sales of certain veterinary diagnostic products and a decision to decrease distributor shipments in the first and second quarters."
I read this as, they made more than they could sell this quarter, so inventory is building up on stock that they spent money producing this quarter, and that they decided to sit on the inventory rather than ship it to distributors to sit in their warehouses so they could book the sales. The revenue is higher than the 3/31 ending Q last year (EDGAR didn't have the equivalent end of 12/31/95 Q data). It's just the profits that suffered due to the expense of building up excess inventory because they overprojected sales growth, and then they didn't hide it by shipping it to distributors. They still made between $24-25.2M or about $0.61 per share last year, even with this bad Q estimate figured in, at my buy in of 12 3/8, and the $24M est. profit for calendar '96, the PE is 20.2, not exactly an outrageously high figure for a biotech company that is not exactly in massive revenue decline IMHO. But IMO, man did they get hammered for trying to be straight with the markets and tell them what was up, and for not trying to bury the inventory at the distributors. Keep in mind, this isn't computers sitting in a warehouse, getting obsolete and lowering in value ala Apple, this is vet diagnostics, etc. As long as they don't get into shelf life issues, and I doubt that the shelf lives are that short, then by trimming current production, they should be able to correct the inventory/order rebalance in the next quarter, spending less and selling more and could even have a profit spike due to the lower needed spending. Could mean some short work weeks for production people, but beats what has happened to them in the markets, the employee stock options just got ugly I'm sure. Nothing trains management like a 60% free fall in your market cap in a few hours, I'll bet they're going to pay a little better attention to the production/order balance. Gee guys, maybe it's time to invest in a little bit better, more real time, production information management system and help the tech sector out by buying some computerized equipment (ie. quit using pencils). Maybe somebody needs to introduce them to the Just-in-Time concept. Just dipped below $12 per share.
Personally I don't expect a real bounce until post the Alan G. show - markets are still too squirmish. It wouldn't surprise me if the bounce didn't happen until the full Q financials get released, or we get past April Fools Day and the fund managers can stand to get back in without having to report it for three more months. In fact, I might just let this cat ride for a Q or two to try and get the BIG gain back as this crucifixion really does not seemed justified to me as the fundamentals do not look all that bad to me over the long term. I doubt that over the long term they're going to disappear or get that much lower, and this seems a hell of a lot less risky than my usual buys who are still developing their products. Keep in mind that IMO no fund manager alive wants to be caught dead holding this cat corpse in their portfolio at quarter end in a week, better to do what they're doing now and bury it in the litter box until after they do their end of Q reporting.
Whatchallthink? Do I have my head buried in the litter box sand with a turd in each eye and ear or do the markets?
Last check, 11:00 AM EST out of free fall, the chute is opened at 11 5/8 but still falling on big volume near 5 million.
Still spittin' sand and chunks.....
Dave
Post proof read, looks like we may have bounce: 11:18, 11 27/32 on 5.5M shares
Go Kitty Go, Bounce Kitty Bounce! |
