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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: marc ultra who wrote (7029)7/21/1999 4:27:00 PM
From: Investor2  Read Replies (2) of 15132
 
Re: "If this turns ugly [China vs. Taiwan] the market won't ignore this and it will either be the cause or excuse for a market plunge."

There is a lot of focus on Bob's model now that the market valuation is so high. Unfortunately, I don't think that any model can quantitatively address international political shocks, such as a conflict between Taiwan and China. We learned as much in October 1998, with the Asian Flu, when the market dropped twice as much as Bob's model predicted because of the international uncertainties.

Best wishes,

I2
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