The Antithesis of the Ron theory(believe only good hype).<It's Easier to Tell a Lie That Everyone Wants to Believe Than It Is to Repair Code and Replace Defective Chips.
The economist likes to look at costs and benefits. He says that when the benefits of an action outweigh costs in an individual's mind, he has a tendency to take the action.
What are the immediate risks to a programmer of lying about one's y2k work? None. No one in the final stages of a y2k project can afford to hire another programmer to check out the lies. What are the benefits? He keeps his job.
What are the immediate costs of a y2k project manager of lying to management? None. The managers want to be told lies about y2k progress. They have no way to discover lies. In fact, it's better for them to be lied to. In 2000, they can point the finger at the IT manager and tell the authorities or the jury in the class action lawsuit: "He lied. How were we to know?"
What are the benefits of lying for the project manager? He keeps his job.
In 2000, the y2k project manager will point to the the propeller heads, now bankrupt: "They lied. How was I to know?"
Meanwhile, since everyone is getting lied to, the risks of being singled out in 2000 for lying this year are dropping, day by day. "Everyone was doing it, from the bottom to the top, all over the world." The courts will recognize this and throw out most cases to keep from jamming the courts. Judges like thin dockets.
The public wants to be lied to. If you tell the lie that y2k is just about fixed, you're a public spirited man. If you say that the good news is a pack of self-interested lies, you're a scaremonger, a huckster, or a religious fanatic.
I'm saying it: it's a pack of lies. It flies in the face of too much evidence -- not all the evidence, but too much of it.
Only on one assumption could the good news be true: y2k is inherently a peripheral problem, trivial in its effects.
OK, all you y2k project managers. Stand up and tell us that whatever you have been paid since 1995 has been a waste of money. Tell us specifically that Company A, which spent $100 million get y2k fixed (Real Soon Now), will be no better off in 2000 than Company B, which did not spend a brass farthing because managers knew y2k was a hoax used by guys like you to steal from them.
Let's see who was lying. One group of IT managers or the other has been engaged in massive deception: the "fix it or die" guys of 1995 or the "we've got it just about fixed" guys of 1999.
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