We undoubtedly have different philosophies for timing. You refer to not being "smart enough to call the timing of a market correction. It could come at any time." I'd agree with you on that, but I don't worry about it. My focus isn't on market timing. It's in STOCK timing. For every stock I own, there's an "out" price and a rationale for adjusting it. My vulnerability is that several stocks might gap down $5+ on a given day. But what are the odds that the DJIA will open -200 some morning? I'm risking that kind of crash, but I assess that as minimal - even for y2k.
If we get the type of severe correction you fear, I will be out of the market. Not because I "time" the market, which I don't, but because I "time" (=chart) my stocks. I will come out of the market one stock at a time, but I will be out. In the meantime, I think it is financially wrong for me to refrain from buying stocks now in fear of a future market correction. It's like being that person who came out of stocks at DJ6000 for fear of a 30% correction to the DJ4000 level. As the market rose, his certainty/dread about the big correction became stronger and stronger and he is still waiting for it.
My last attempt to "time the market" was one July day back in 1996? 1997? By noon the DJIA was down some 200 points, and I bailed out of some 9 or 10 stocks. But by market close the DJIA was up 100+ points. Almost every single stock I sold closed higher than what I had sold at. Within two weeks, that day was just a blip on an overall uptrend.
So I don't 'time' the market. I don't worry (much) about y2k. Your prognosis might be entirely correct. Yet, I'll continue to focus on stocks. Bringing this discussion back to PMCS, I feel that now is the time to be buying PMCS. Let the market bring what it may. There will later be a time to be getting out of PMCS. |
