2330 GMT, 990720 – FARC Abandons Village in DMZ – Indefinitely Postpones Talks
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The Colombian newspaper 'El Espectador' reported on July 19 that units of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) withdrew from checkpoints at the entrances and exits of the municipality of San Vicente del Caguan. The withdrawal occurred last weekend, surprising residents. About nine months ago the FARC arrived in the area as part of an agreement between the rebel group and the Colombian government to provide the FARC with a demilitarized zone (DMZ) that was meant to be a "laboratory of peace." The FARC set up guard posts around San Vicente del Caguan at that time, and now they stand abandoned.
The FARC withdrawal came on July 17 as the government and the rebels announced that peace talks, earlier postponed from July 7 to July 20 (see Official Excuse for Delay in Colombian Peace Talks Questionable), would be postponed indefinitely. The official reason given was that the parties had been unable to reach an agreement on an international verification commission to monitor the talks. That may be one reason, but as with the previous postponement, it seems there is something else going on. The FARC's postponement of negotiations is one thing, but its abandonment of control of a village within the DMZ is quite another, and for several reasons. On the surface, the FARC has no cause to withdraw from San Vicente del Caguan. The talks have not collapsed; they have only been delayed. And the government of President Andres Pastrana appears honestly committed to the peace talks – even dependent on their success (see Pastrana Juggling Economy and Security). Additionally, there is no indication that the FARC made a deal with the government to withdraw in exchange for another concession.
Something clearly has the FARC spooked. Given recent events in Colombia, and recent statements from both the FARC and the Colombian government, the most reasonable explanation for the FARC withdrawal is that the FARC fears it can no longer hold its ground. Such a fear would imply that the FARC considers an overwhelming attempt by the Colombian military a real and imminent possibility. It would also imply that the FARC believes that either Pastrana is not negotiating in good faith, or that elements in the Colombian military opposed to Pastrana's peace plan are actively advancing their own agenda.
The Colombian army countered extremely well the last two major offensives launched by the FARC. In recent weeks the U.S. has indicated it will increase military assistance to Colombia in the form of materials and training. The Colombian army, which the FARC has trounced numerous times, may have received sufficient foreign support and seen ample internal reform for the FARC to consider it a substantially increased threat. And according to a July 19 report in El Espectador, Pastrana's private secretary and the President of Colombia's Congress have both spoken out against the FARC's administration of justice in the DMZ, calling executions of civilians in the zone unallowable. This is at the root of the dispute over international observers, but it could also serve as justification for revoking the DMZ.
Additionally, the U.S. has recently floated two plans for regional intervention (see U.S. Proposes Intervention Forces for Latin American Crises). One, rejected by the Organization of American States, involved the creation of a multinational intervention force to defend democratic governments in Latin America. The other was a reported offer to Colombia's neighbors of intelligence and aviation support to contain Colombia's guerrilla problem. A recent survey by the Colombian radio station RCN found that 66 percent of Colombian citizens would support a U.S. military intervention in Colombia's civil war. The survey was conducted in 40 major Colombian cities and polled Colombian citizens in Miami and New York as well.
Prior to the July 6 postponement, FARC leaders publicly decried what they claimed was the U.S. intent to intervene militarily in Colombia. Whether the FARC has seen signs of increasing U.S. involvement on the ground, or has just become lost in paranoia and propaganda, is unclear. Regardless, the rebels seem to be acting on their fears. The recent success of the Colombian army in the battlefield, combined with the threat of increased U.S. support and the flagging of its own support among the population might be working to give the FARC a moment of pause. The last several years have seen the FARC rise to a level of power that had military officials in the U.S. and Colombia worried about the security of the nation. Given the Colombian army's recent successes, there are those in the Colombian government and military who will argue that the FARC's preeminence is not so certain. The way the FARC is nervously reacting, they may even be positioning to prove it.
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